A larger corrective downtrend started from 1.1085 (July’11 high), appears to be still in force for AUD/USD which may be a large triangle consolidation in a range between 1.0860 and 0.9580 (Alt-double zigzag corrective swing, which allows for a retest of the Oct’11 swing low at 0.9390 on multi-month basis). A break below 0.9580/0.9390 deepens the correction toward 0.9145. A break above 1.0860 would expose the 1.1000/1.1085 resistance in a complex wave B.
The pair’s recovery from 1.0150 (8th Oct low) has been unfolding in a wedge pattern with overlapping waves. We prefer to view that the recovery could be wave [b] of a flat corrective wave X. The recovery could extend if the currency holds above 1.0330/1.0285. A break above 1.0530/1.0585 could test the tough 1.0625/1.0675 resistance before failing. A reversal below 1.0285 however would refocus on 1.0200/1.0150.